Yankees Rotation

The Yankees are expected to repeat as 2012 AL East Division champions, and their starting rotation will be a big part of that.  Last season, they appeared to be a team that was lacking one or two legitimate starters.  That wasn't enough to stop them from winning the division, but it was enough to prevent them from being a factor in the postseason.  They think that they've solved that problem with a big trade and a nice free agent signing only days ago.

1.  LHP C. C. Sabathia:  Sabathia had another good season last year.  He pitched 237.1 innings and fanned 230 batters, while picking up 19 wins with a 3.00 ERA and a ton of run support.  Sabathia wouldn't get as much attention as an ace outside of the Bronx (without that run support his win total would probably be somewhere around 13, with some experts saying as low as 7) and he's not one of the elite pitchers in the AL.  But he's a horse who gets a lot of swings and misses and he's suitable to serve as the Yankees ace.  Look for him to have another strong season this year, especially if he stays away from that Captain Crunch.

2.  RHP Michael Pineda:  Pineda was an impressive rookie last season in Seattle.  For the Mariners he posted a 3.74 ERA in 28 starts.  He only won nine games for the Mariners, but that total should go up with a better team and more run support with the Yankees.  The only other factor will be the ballpark.  Pineda was extremely impressive in the pitcher-friendly Safeco Field, but will he be able to maintain his productivity in the bandbox that is Yankee Stadium?  LeRoy doesn't think so.  But he should still serve as a decent middle of the rotation starter.  The trade for Pineda (in exchange for C/DH Jesus Montero and RHP Hector Noesi) has not yet been made official, but unless it falls through this should be a pretty good swap for both teams.

3.  RHP Ivan Nova:  Nova had a terrific season last year, posting a 3.70 ERA to go along with 16 wins in 27 starts.  And unlike Pineda, there's no question about whether or not he can pitch in Yankee Stadium or how effective he can be in Yankee Stadium.  The answers to those questions are "yes" and "quite effective."  In 2012, Nova will look to increase his number of starts, innings pitched, and strikeouts.

4.  RHP Hiroki Kuroda:  The Yankees have recently signed Kuroda to a one-year contract worth $10 million, although the deal is not official as he has yet to pass a physical.  Unless something untoward is found in his health, this should be a good sign for the Yankees.  Kuroda had a 3.07 ERA in 32 starts and 202 innings pitched last season for the Dodgers.  He only won 13 games for a pretty good Dodgers team, but that was due more to bad run support than to ineffectiveness.  He won't have that problem with the Yankees.  The only question is, can he pitch as effectively in the Bronx as he did in Chavez Ravine?  The answer:  Probably not.  But he should emerge as the team's second ace behind Sabathia.

5.  RHP Phil Hughes:  Hughes had problems with injuries last season, and he was terrible while healthy, posting a 5.79 ERA in 74.2 innings.  His first task will be to stay on the team in Spring Training, and his second task will be to stay in the rotation.  He could end up back in the bullpen, either as a long reliever or as a setup man again.  If he does stick in the rotation he will try to stay healthy and again become a mediocre starter.

6.  RHP A. J. Burnett:  Burnett had a terrible season last year, and this time he can't blame injuries or former Yankees C Jorge Posada for his performance.  He had a 5.15 ERA in 32 starts and only managed an 11-11 record with the Yankees lineup behind him.  The Yankees have made it no secret that they will try to trade him in Spring Training, though that may prove a difficult task considering his body of work throughout his career and from last year and the years and money ($32 million) remaining on his contract.  There's really no good side to this story.  He's probably a better option for the rotation than Hughes, but that won't make him a favorite to win a spot on the team. 

7.  RHP Freddy Garcia:  If there is justice in the world Garcia will win the fifth starter's job for the Yankees.  But the Yankees have a lot more money invested in Burnett and a lot more hype invested in Hughes.  The way things are going with the Yankees this off-season it looks like Burnett will not be traded and thusly be awarded the fifth starter's job and Hughes will wind up in the bullpen.  Even if a trade for Burnett is worked out Hughes would probably still win the fifth starter's role for hype's sake and Garcia would be sent to the 'pen.  If Burnett wins the role Garcia would probably be released.  That's a shame.  He had a 3.62 ERA in 25 starts last season.

8.  RHP Dellin Betances:  Betances broke into the Majors in a brief September call-up last season and posted a 6.75 ERA in 2.2 innings.  He clearly wasn't ready for the Majors despite his fine Minor League season, and he will need most of one full year at AAA before he is ready.  Expect to see a new and improved Betances again in September.

9.  RHP D. J. Mitchell:  Mitchell had an outstanding season last year at AAA, posting a 3.18 ERA in 24 starts at Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.  He's probably ready for the show, but it doesn't look like there's room for him yet.

10.  RHP David Phelps:  Phelps had minor injury problems last year which don't appear to be a concern.  He had a good season at AAA last year, posting a 3.19 ERA in 19 starts along with two near-perfect starts in a rehab assignment in the Gulf Coast League.  Phelps is probably also ready for the show, although there doesn't appear to be room for him and his injury history may be more of a concern than the Yankees are letting on.

11.  RHP Brad Meyers:  Meyers was taken in the Rule V Draft by the Yankees from Washington this year.  That means that he'll have to stick with the team in Spring Training this year to remain Yankees property.  That means that he'll probably be back in Washington this season unless their bullpen really falls apart.  That's probably not a bad thing for the Yankees.  Meyers probably needs at least 5 or 6 starts at AAA before he's ready for the show, and the Yankees can't do that with a Rule V pick.

The Yankees rotation looks pretty good.  Sabathia, Pineda, Nova, and Kuroda are the real deal.  And if the Yankees did the proper thing and named Garcia the fifth starter they could have one of the better rotations in the Majors (potentially).  But they have to figure out what to do with Hughes and Burnett.  Either way, the four guaranteed starters look good.  They have nothing in the way of veteran depth at AAA, which is a problem.

Here's how the three local teams fare in the rotation competition:

1.  Yankees:  They have five legit starters with Garcia, and even if he gets released in favor of Burnett or Hughes (or both) the Yankees still have four legit starters.

2.  Mets:  The Mets have one stud in R. A. Dickey, two good options in Jon Nies and Dillon Gee, and one exceptable starter in Mike Pelfrey.  And if they can get Johan Santana healthy their rotation will be pretty strong.  If not they'll turn to rookie Chris Schwinden.  With or without Santana their rotation looks decent.

3.  Red Sox:  They have two legit starters in Jon Lester and Josh Beckett, but after that everything is a question mark regarding either health (Clay Buchholz), ineffectiveness (John Lackey), or both (Dice-K).