Thursday, January 19, 2012

Red Sox Bullpen

The Red Sox are trying to recover from a disastrous collapse last season.  One of the reasons for their collapse was a solid bullpen which fell apart late in the season.  RHP Jonathan Papelbon is gone, and Boston has replaced him, perhaps even with an upgrade.  That's a good place to start.

1.  RHP Andrew Bailey:  Injuries have plagued the newly-acquired Bailey throughout his career, and last season was no exception.  Luckily for the Red Sox, effectiveness has never been a problem.  Last season Bailey posted a 3.24 ERA with 24 saves in 41.2 innings pitched for Oakland.  Bailey turns 28 in May, and he should be poised for a breakout season.  The Red Sox hope that he can stay healthy and develop into one of the premier AL closers .

2.  RHP Mark Melancon:  Melancon came out of nowhere last season as Houston's closer, and the Red Sox swooped him up when he became available.  He's penciled into serve as the setup man for Bailey, though he will also serve as insurance for the oft-injured closer.  He should fit in nicely in either role.  Melancon posted a 2.78 ERA with 20 saves in 74.1 innings pitched for the Astros last season.

3.  RHP Alfredo AcevesAceves is a returner from last season and he should handle the seventh inning most of the time.  He's been a good reliever throughout his career, and last season was no exception.  The Red Sox know what to expect, and hope that he can duplicate his 2.61 ERA in 114 innings pitched from last season.

4.  RHP Bobby JenksJenks has been a good reliever throughout his career, but he faltered last season due to injury and ineffectiveness.  He's still going to be handed a spot in the bullpen, but his role will probably be lesser as he has to prove that he can still be a reliable reliever.  If he does pitch well, he may get some work as a setup man and even some save opportunities behind Bailey and Melancon.  Until then though, look for Jenks to get some time as a crossover specialist in middle relief.  And the Red Sox will probably move slowly with Jenks.  He only pitched in 19 games last season due to injury, and his ERA was over 6.00 in those 19.  He's in need of a complete overhaul, and that usually takes time.

5.  RHP Matt AlbersAlbers is also returning from last year, and like Jenks, he's trying to increase his effectiveness by quite a bit.  Given his performance last year and throughout his career, this guy is lucky to be considered a front-runner for a spot in any Major League bullpen, let alone one that expects to win in Boston.  Last season Albers posted a 4.73 ERA in 64.2 innings.  Despite that poor performance he's expected to break camp as a right-handed specialist in middle relief.

6.  LHP Franklin MoralesMorales is returning from last year and, unlike Jenks and Albers, his season was mostly marked with bright spots.  Based on his career performance, last season was either a career year or a sign that he's finally turned the corner.  The Red Sox are hoping for the latter, as Morales is the easy favorite to break camp as the lefty specialist (and possibly lone lefty) in Boston's middle relief corps.  Last season he posted a 3.69 ERA in 46.1 innings pitched.

7.  LHP Andrew MillerMiller made 12 starts for Boston last year and is probably still viewed as a starting pitcher in the organization.  However, he's also being looked at as a reliever.  The plus side about a guy like Miller is that he can be kept in the bullpen and make a spot start here and there when needed.  That essentially makes him a perfect fit for the long relief role, and Boston sees him as the front-runner for that role right now.  Last season he posted a 5.54 ERA in 12 starts and 65 innings pitched.

8.  RHP Michael BowdenBowden will turn 26 in September and is one of the more promising young arms who's ready to go in the Majors in the Boston organization.  But his results at the big league level have been puzzling for years.  Last season he posted a 4.05 ERA in 20 innings pitched.  Based on the makeup of the bullpen he's probably headed back down to Pawtucket again.  However, he should be the first person recalled if a need for a right-hander develops in the bullpen.

9.  LHP Felix DoubrontDoubront has always been a starter in the Minor Leagues and he's still viewed that way by Boston, but they've always used him in relief in his brief stints in the Majors.  If a need for a left-hander develops in Boston's bullpen Doubront will probably be the first guy recalled despite his status as a starter and his ineffectiveness as a reliever in the Majors.  Last season he posted a 6.10 ERA in 10.1 innings pitched in the Majors.

10.  RHP Scott AtchisonAtchison has been in the Red Sox organization for years and he's one of the most well-liked people in their system.  He's always had some trouble staying in the Majors and pitching effectively at the game's top-level, and he's probably headed back to AAA despite his strong performance last season, albeit in limited opportunity.  Atchison posted a 3.26 ERA in 30.1 innings pitched last season for Boston.  He should get important innings at PawtucketSox pitchers.

11.  RHP Daniel Bard:  Boston has Bard penciled into start this season.  They're so committed to this notion that they're saying that they would consider sending him to Pawtucket until there's room in the Major League rotation.  Get it straight mister:  Bard belongs in the bullpen.  But right now they're so committed to Bard starting that he's below Bowden and company on the depth chart.  Last season Bard posted a 3.33 ERA in 73 innings pitched for Boston.  Yeah, he belongs in the bullpen.

12.  RHP Junichi Tazawa:  Boston has temporarily given up on Japanese import Tazawa as a starter.  They now believe that he belongs in the bullpen, although he probably has no chance of winning a job in the Majors out of Spring Training.  Tazawa is still a top prospect, but his stints in the Majors have not gone well and his contract runs out this year.  At his current rate of success he could be headed back to the land of the rising sun.  Last season he posted a 6.00 ERA in three innings for Boston, and he still needs time in the Minors before he's ready.  Considering that he probably figures to start the season at AA and he'll be 26 this season, it looks like Tazawa might be another Nippon bust for Boston.

13.  LHP Jesse CarlsonCarlson is a Minor League veteran who Boston has signed to provide depth at AAA.  He should stick with the organization after Spring Training.  If Boston needs a left-hander at any time in 2012 and they don't want to mess too much with Doubront than Carlson will be the guy who gets the call.  Last season he posted a 4.61 ERA in 13.2 innings pitched for Toronto.

14.  LHP Rich HillHill is trying to get back into the Major Leagues as a reliever after making 32 starts for the Cubs in 2007.  He pitched last year in Boston and is well-liked in the organization.  He's probably only here for depth but he should stick with the organization after the Spring.  You probably won't see Hill unless there are a lot of bad injuries in Boston this year, though a September call-up is probably in order.  He didn't give up any earned runs in eight innings pitched last season for Boston.

15.  LHP Justin ThomasThomas is a Minor League veteran who Boston has signed to provide depth at Pawtucket.  He's really only here for a tryout and Boston just wants to see what he has to offer.  Don't be surprised to see him released by the end of Spring Training.  He posted a 3.89 ERA in 69.1 innings pitched last season for Indianapolis.

16.  RHP Will InmanInman is a Minor League veteran who Boston has signed as a Minor League free agent who is a former top prospect with Milwaukee and San Diego.  He'll only be 25 next season and still has a lot of potential.  Having said that, it would not be a complete surprise to see him let go at the end of the Spring.  He posted a 6.15 ERA in 117 innings pitched last season.

17.  RHP Tony Pena Jr.:  That's right folks, this is the same Tony Pena Jr. who was the starting rocket-armed shortstop for Kansas City in 2007.  The Royals used him as a reliever in a blow-out in a game in 2008, where he showcased a 97 mile-per-hour fastball.  It was mentioned tongue-in-cheek style by many that Pena, who was struggling at the plate, could have been sent back down to the Minors and converted into a reliever.  Well, after another rough start in 2009 Pena was indeed sent to the Arizona League and told to start pitching.  He pitched in the San Francisco organization in 2010 and caught on with Boston last year, where he impressed a lot of people in the organization.  And for good reason, he posted a 3.56 ERA in 116.1 innings pitched at Pawtucket.  He's low on the depth chart but well-liked in the organization, which means that you could see him in September.

Boston's bullpen has three pretty big holes as it's currently constructed.  Two in middle relief and one in long relief.  But the long relief role isn't that important and if you factor Bard into the equation you could move Aceves back into middle relief and all of a sudden three holes turns into one.  You still have to wonder about Jenks though.  Other than that the bullpen should be solid, with a lot in the way of depth at Pawtucket.

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