Sunday, January 15, 2012

Red Sox Rotation

Pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training in a month.  The Red Sox are trying to erase the memory of last September's collapse by bringing in new management (in the front office and at the field level) and by hoping that most of last year's returnees can wipe away September and return to top-form.  Let's start with the rotation.

1.  LHP Jon LesterLester has emerged as the true ace of this staff, going 15-9 with a 3.47 ERA and 182 strikeouts in 191.2 innings pitched.  That's pretty much a standard season for Lester, although the innings total and strikeouts are down.  Hopefully he can get his strikeouts and longevity back up and return to his 2010 form.  Regardless, the Red Sox should expect another strong season from their ace.

2.  RHP Josh Beckett:  In a lot of ways Beckett had the best season of his career last year.  He made 30 starts, pitched 193 innings, had a 2.89 ERA, and posted 175 strikeouts.  He didn't get much run support and only went 13-7, but that's really the only negative and more or less outside of his control.  Beckett hasn't posted back-to-back strong seasons since he came to Boston, but new manager Bobby Valentine is hoping that he can right that wrong in 2012.

3.  RHP Clay Buchholz:  2011 was a lost season for Buchholz due to injury, but when he was healthy he was strong, posting a 3.82 ERA in 82.2 innings pitched.  The Red Sox are hoping that he can bounce back next season and maintain his performance on the mound.

4.  RHP Daisuke MatsuzakaDice-K is also trying to bounce back from a lost 2011 season.  He only made seven starts, and in those seven he was roughed up pretty badly.  If Boston expects to win they really can't have Dice-K pitching the way he did last season.  And his health is still a question mark.

5.  RHP John LackeyLackey performed below expectations after Boston signed him before the 2010 season, but after last year he's starting to look like the definition of a free agent bust.  He had minor injury problems which really aren't much of a concern, but his real problems were with performance.  He posted an ERA over 6.00 in 28 starts.  That's not acceptable, especially if Boston wants to avoid another late-season collapse.

6.  RHP Daniel BardBard's a setup man.  Valentine expects him to be a setup man.  So does everyone else.  But he used to start in the Minor Leagues.  With Bobby Jenks returning and new acquisitions Andrew Bailey and Mark Melancon the bullpen should be strong, or at least deep.  And with so many question marks with the first five in the rotation, the odds of Bard starting have gone way up, to the point where he is now regarded as the first line of defense in case of injury or ineffectiveness.

7.  LHP Andrew MillerMiller spent quite a bit of time in Boston last season, making 12 starts.  He also made 12 starts at Pawtucket.  He was lights-out at AAA, but not so much in Boston.  Having said that, it becomes apparent that Miller is really only here for depth.  But he is well-liked in the organization and should get a fair-shake in Spring Training.  He'll be the first one recalled if the Red Sox need a lefty.

8.  LHP Felix DoubrontDoubront spent some time on the Minor League disabled list last season.  He had rehab assignments in both the New York-Penn League and the Eastern League, but spent most of the year at Pawtucket.  All told, he made 18 starts in the Minors and was lights-out when healthy.  But a September call-up that saw Doubront pitch in 11 games out of the bullpen for Boston was a disaster.  He'll probably end up in AAA unless he opens some eyes in the Spring.

9.  RHP Stolmy PimentelPimentel spent last season between AA and the Carolina League.  He wasn't particularly impressive in either stop, treading water in A-ball and getting dominated at AA, averaging over one earned run given up per inning pitched.  Despite his ineffectiveness, the Red sox still thought highly enough of him to put him on the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V Draft.  But he's probably going back to AA and won't be in the Majors anytime soon.

10.  LHP Drake Britton:  Like Pimentel, Britton was added to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule V Draft.  And like Pimentel, the Red Sox are hoping he turns the corner soon.  Last season at Salem, Britton posted a 6.91 ERA in 26 starts.  He figures to start the season at AA.

11.  RHP Brandon DuckworthDuckworth is a Minor League veteran who spent last season at Pawtucket, posting a 3.97 ERA in 21 starts.  He never got a recall from Boston last year, but he impressed a lot in the organization and was brought back for 2012.  He should stick with the team and will probably be the first right-hander to get a recall from Pawtucket, especially if there is a need in the rotation.

12.  RHP Doug MathisMathis is a Minor League veteran who the Red Sox

13.  RHP Charlie HaegerHaeger is a Minor League veteran who throws a knuckleball. Haeger started last season in Tacoma but was released.  He was picked up by Boston late in the season and sent to Portland, where he pitched well.  Haeger is well-liked in the organization and his knuckleball remains unique and intriguing.  He could get a recall at some point in time in 2012.

14.  RHP Chorye SpooneSpoone is a former top prospect from Baltimore who will only be 26 this season.  He spent last season between AA and AAA in Baltimore's system before leaving as a six-year Minor League free agent.  Spoone still has potential but Boston will probably have a leash on him.  He's almost guaranteed to start the season in AAA.  Last year he posted a combined 4.50 ERA in 122 innings pitched.

15.  RHP Carlos Silva:  Yes.  This is the same Carlos Silva who last pitched in the Majors for the Cubs in 2010.  He's been given a tryout by the Red Sox this year, but don't expect him to last long.  He shouldn't stick with the club past Spring Training.  He pitched in the Yankees system last season and was injured for most of it, making only four starts at AAA.

The Red Sox rotation is iffy.  Aside from Lester, there are questions everywhere.  Beckett hasn't had back-to-back strong seasons in Boston yet.  Buchholz and Dice-K are trying to return from injury (and Dice-K has never really been anything more than a solid pitcher anyways).  John Lackey is just plain terrible.  Daniel Bard has never before been a starter.  And there isn't much in reserve in the Minor Leagues. 

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