Mets Rotation

The Mets appear to be in the second year of an official rebuilding program, and in the fourth year of a rebuilding program in reality, unless they can pull off what would amount to a near miracle in 2012.  Having said that, the Mets' rotation this season appears to have been designed to tread water as opposed to win.

1.  LHP Johan Santana:  Santana is attempting to come back after anterior capsule surgery in about 18 months, if he plans to be the Opening Day starter.  To date, that would be the fastest recovery from such a procedure.  Not that there's much of a sample.  The only person to successfully recover from said surgery is Washington Nationals RHP Chien-Ming Wang, and it took him about two full years.  The only other person to undergo such a procedure is former Chicago Cubs RHP Mark Prior, who has never again pitched in the Majors.  New York Yankees LHP Pedro Feliciano suffered a tear of his left (throwing) anterior capsule as well, but opted for a resting procedure as opposed to an operation.  The jury is still out on Feliciano.  And it's the same thing for Santana.  The Mets are hoping that he returns this year as their ace.  The most optimistic scenario might have him returning by September, and even that would be quick.  And don't forget Mets fans, it's not unreasonable to think that his career might be over.  If you don't believe me, see Prior.

2.  RHP Mike Pelfrey:  Pelfrey will once again serve as the team's number two starter, and de facto ace if Santana proves unavailable again.  Last year was not good for Pelfrey, who went 7-13 with a 4.74 ERA and 105 strikeouts in 193.2 innings pitched.  That's not terrible by any means, and with the Mets' current situation it's easily enough for a rotation spot.  But he's not an ace.

3.  LHP Jon Niese:  Niese had a pretty good season last year, going 11-11 with a 4.40 ERA in 26 starts.  He'll look to capitalize on that success this year by staying healthy throughout the season and by improving upon both his record (which was probably an over-achievement last year) and lowering his ERA.

4.  RHP R. A. Dickey:  Dickey was the team's ace last season in all respects, despite his 8-13 record.  He pitched 208.2 innings, recorded 134 strikeouts and posted a 3.28 ERA.  And he did all that with a knuckleball.  Dickey will look to have a third strong season in a row and once again step up as the team's true ace.

5.  RHP Dillon Gee:  Gee had a strong rookie season last year after a brief start in the Minor Leagues and some time in the bullpen as a long reliever.  As a starter, Gee went 13-6 with a 4.43 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 27 starts.  He'll look to improve upon his win, innings pitched, and strikeout totals next season while lowering his ERA below 4.00.

6.  RHP Chris Schwinden:  Schwinden is a guy who's come up through the Mets system and has impressed a lot of people along the way.  He's never distinguished himself as a top prospect but he's pitched very well at every stop along the way in the Minors.  Last season he was recalled in September and posted a 4.71 ERA in four starts.  If a long-term injury befalls one of the Mets' first five starts - or if Santana won't return before the All-Star break - Schwinden will probably serve as the team's fifth starter.

7.  RHP Jeremy Hefner:  Hefner is a Minor League veteran whom the Mets claimed on waivers from the San Diego system.  Last season at Portland he posted a 4.98 ERA in 28 starts.  If the Mets need a right-hander for short-term work Hefner should be the first one to get the call.  He'll only be 26 this season, and he still has the potential to develop into a reliable pitcher at the big league level.

8.  RHP Jenrry Mejia:  Mejia is a former top prospect with the Mets who is recovering from Tommy John surgery.  He'll probably miss most of this season after posting a 2.86 ERA at Buffalo in five starts last season before undergoing surgery.  But a speedy recovery could see Mejia on the 40-Man Roster in September. 

9.  LHP Robert Carson:  Carson is another guy who has come up through the Mets system without ever developing into a prospect but has shown enough potential for the Mets to make an investment in him.  He really has no chance to make the team out of Spring Training, but the Mets liked him enough to put him on the 40-Man Roster to protect him from the Rule V Draft.  He had a 5.05 ERA in 25 starts last season at Binghamton and will need to improve upon that mark if he wants to keep playing professionally.  He'll likely be sent to Buffalo after Spring Training and Mets fans probably won't see him at all in 2012, though a strong season at AAA could earn him a September call-up.

10.  RHP Jeurys Familia:  Familia is a top prospect with the Mets who they will take a look at in Spring Training.  Last season he posted a combined 2.90 ERA in 23 starts between St. Lucie and Binghamton.  He should return to Binghamton

11.  RHP Armando Rodriguez:  Rodriguez has come up though the Mets system but has never emerged as a top prospect, although he has pitched well in every stop along the way.  The Mets have added him to their 40-Man Roster to protect him from the Rule V Draft.  He was injured last season, and posted a 3.96 ERA in 16 starts at St. Lucie.  He'll probably be headed to Binghamton this season, although he could return to A-ball.

12.  LHP Garrett Olson:  Olson is a Minor League veteran whom the Mets have signed as a free agent and invited to Spring Training.  Olson has always been an outstanding starting pitcher in the Minors, though he's been shelled in the Majors, albeit primarily pitching as a reliever.  Last season he posted a 2.08 ERA in 4.1 innings with Pittsburgh.  He'll probably be the first pitcher recalled if the Mets need a left-hander on a short-term basis.

The Mets' rotation doesn't look bad.  They have one stud pitcher in Dickey and two pretty good middle-of-the-rotation guys in Niese and Gee.  Plus, Pelfrey's not a terrible option as a fourth or fifth starter.  After that, they could take a chance on the fifth starter role with Schwinden, who - thus far - has been a great starter in the Minors and an okay one in the Majors.  And then there's always Santana.  They don't have much in reserve in the Minors though.