As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees. We will begin with the starting rotations and will continue with the New York Yankees.
The 2010 Yankees found out last season (again) that a team is really only as good as its fourth starter. The Yankees are hoping that 2010 was an aberration, but conventional wisdom suggests that 2009 was the off-year. Once again, the Yankees have positioned themselves as a good team with a strong offense and extremely questionable pitching.
1. LHP C. C. Sabathia: Sabathia had a season last year which would rank him in the top ten in Cy Young voting in any league. He's been the pitcher the Yankees overpaid for in his first two seasons with the club. His ERA has been in the 3.00 to 3.99 range in both years and he has benefited from the run support he receives in the Bronx. His health is always an issue because of his weight problems, but aside from that he's ready to go.
2. RHP A. J. Burnett: Burnett is a headcase who has been unable to string back-to-back good seasons together throughout his career. At the same time he's never pitched himself out of the Major Leagues. He had a terrible season last year and has not pitched good in his two years with the team making it likely that many in the Yankees organization are regretting signing him. He could be do for a better season this year after his terrible 2010 campaign, but at the same time he could be nearing his decline. The Yankees have graced him a personal catcher and he'll use Francisco Cervelli in that role. Despite all of the questions, he's guaranteed a rotation spot with his contract.
3. RHP Phil Hughes: Hughes won 18 games last year but had an ERA near five, didn't come close to logging 200 innings pitched, and is not a strikeout pitcher. He benefits from the run support he gets at Yankee Stadium but is not an ideal third starter. Hughes doesn't have a big contract and he is expendable from that standpoint. In addition, he's had success in the past working out of the bullpen. But their rotation is so thin that he's nowhere near losing his job.
4. RHP Ivan Nova: Nova is a young righthander who's short on experience and undeveloped on talent. He's made seven starts in his career and posted a 4.50 ERA. A risk like Nova is better suited as a fifth stater candidate, long reliever, or AAA ace. In the Bronx, he's the fourth starter. The Yankees are hoping that he undergoes a quick learning curve but don't hold your breath. Nova is inexpensive and may be better suited starting the season off in the minors. At this time, though, he looks like a lock.
5. RHP Sergio Mitre: Mitre is a relief pitcher. He made three starts last season and has made 64 in his career. If this guy is penciled in as your fifth starter, your rotation is in trouble. His spot is hardly guaranteed, but his inclusion here is more telling of the top four starters than about himself.
6. RHP Dellin Betances: Betances is an animalistic righthander who has become a big prospect in the Yankees system. He's been a good starter in the minors but he has not pitched above AA and there's a pretty good chance that he'll start 2011 there. But with this rotation you never know.
7. RHP Hector Noesi: Noesi is a young righthander who finished last season in AAA. He's been good in the minors and participated in last year's Futures Game. He's been given a number already by the Yankees so they clearly think highly of him. The Yankees probably want him back in AAA to start 2011, but he has a chance to make the team.
Bottom Line: The Yankees are probably looking hard at a third place finish next season. They have a good offense but the Rays were the better team last year (although they lost Carl Crawford) and the Red Sox have emerged as the favorite in the division if not the league. And if the Blue Jays build upon last year the Yanks will have all they can do just to finish as high as third. If they want a better chance at competing then they should sign at least one more reliable starter.
Overall Rotation Analysis:
1. Red Sox: Really the only rotation among the three local teams with any balance.
2. Mets: The Mets' rotation is a mess especially with Johan Santana likely starting the season off on the DL.
3. Yankees: If you finish below the Mets in this race then you know you're in trouble.
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