Mets Bullpen

As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees.  We will continue with the bullpens and go on with the New York Mets.

The Mets bullpen was in shambles for much of last year from top to bottom.  Closer Francisco Rodriguez was jailed, suspended, and injured following an assault of his girlfriend's father.  Ryota Igarashi was injured and ineffective.  The team changed its tune on Jenrry Mejia mid-season.  Sean Green was injured for the majority of the season.  Also, the team was hamstrung for most of the year by the presence of Oliver Perez as the long reliever, effectively operating a man down.  If not for Pedro Feliciano, Hisanori Takahashi, and the late-season re-arrival of Bobby Parnell (Feliciano and Takahashi are both gone) the team would have been in shambles.  However, the bullpen somehow remained effective and was able to produce results as one of the better bullpens in the NL.

Some figured that new GM Sandy Alderson would have opted to revamp the bullpen but that is not the case.  One of the principles of moneyball is to limit spending and to not overspend on "overvalued" players.  Basically, this means that the bullpen and bench will suffer.  Alderson is hoping for another collective miracle out of the 'pen.  With the players the Mets have assembled he better hope that happens.

Closer:  Francisco Rodriguez.  If K-Rod can stay out of prison then the Mets should expect another decent season from him.  He hasn't had a great season since arriving in New York, but the Mets are hoping that he can save over 90 percent of his games and post an ERA somewhere around 3.50.  Anything more than that will be an added bonus as K-Rod has not been the same pitcher he was with the Angels.  He is pitching in a contract year, so perhaps K-Rod will have extra incentive to perform.

Here's how the rest of the bullpen figures to shape up:

1.  RHP Manny Acosta:  3-2, 2.95 ERA, one save, 42 strikeouts
2.  RHP Bobby Parnell:  0-1, 2.83 ERA, no saves, 33 strikeouts
3.  RHP D. J. Carrasco:  3-2, 3.68 ERA, no saves, 65 strikeouts (Pittsburgh Pirates, Arizona Diamondbacks)
4.  RHP Taylor Buchholz:  1-0, 3.75 ERA, no saves, nine strikeouts (Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays)
5.  LHP Oliver Perez:  0-5, 6.80 ERA, no saves, 37 strikeouts
6.  LHP Pat Misch:  0-4, 3.82 ERA, no saves, 23 strikeouts
7.  Who the fuck knows?

There is a lot of indecision regarding the bullpen.  Acosta and Parnell started last season in AAA.  Buchholz is in the midst of a comeback from Tommy John surgery.  Perez again will force the team to play with a man down.  Misch is a veteran of the Minor Leagues as a starter with essentially no experience working out of the 'pen.  The only sure bet is Carrasco.  Plus, the final spot in the 'pen will probably come from someone at AAA Buffalo.

Others who will be vying for the seventh spot may include:

1.  RHP Manuel Alvarez:  A small righthander who has had success out of the 'pen in the Minors.
2.  RHP Pedro Beato:  New to the organization, Beato is an animalistic righthander who has was converted into a reliever at AA in the Baltimore organization last season.
3.  RHP Josh Stinson:  A swing man in the minors who could figure into the plan as a long man and spot starter.

The Buffalo Bisons will likely fill out their bullpen with former Major League arms.  Most of those players will get a look in Spring Training by the Mets.  Given the wide-openness of the big league 'pen, those players could make the team with a good showing in Spring.  Some of the pitchers that the Bisons have already signed are:

1.  RHP Boof Bonser
2.  LHP Michael O'Connor

The verdict:  The bullpen is going to be a weak spot on a team which doesn't figure to be strong.  In the moneyball system the bullpen and bench usually turns over every season and rarely is composed of marquee players, aside from the closer.  The Mets may sign a host of players to Non-Roster contracts to compete for a spot in the 'pen and/or to provide depth at AAA.  Alderson is hoping for another season where the team can catch lightning in a bottle from its relievers.  This has happened every year since 2003 so it may happen again.  However, the players assembled are the weakest the Mets have had in their 'pen collectively since 1995 or 1996.  Expect the bullpen to lose a lot of games this year and expect Alderson to wisely upgrade in 2012.  If he values his job, he'll start to see the worth of a reliable bullpen in New York.