Monday, January 17, 2011

Red Sox First Baseman

As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in mid-February) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees.  We will continue with the first basemen and start with the Boston Red Sox.

For the past several seasons Kevin Youkilis has served admirably as Boston's first baseman.  In 2011 and beyond, however, Youkilis will man the hot corner for the BoSox.  Mike Lowell is gone after a season too many, Adrian Beltre is gone after a terrific lone season in New England, and Youkilis will finally be playing where he has always belonged.  And the Red Sox didn't exactly downgrade at first base.

1.  Adrian GonzalezGonzalez-to-Boston had been an on-again-off-again trade for the past several years.  At the 2010 Winter Meetings it finally became true.  The lefty slugger slammed 31 homers last season and knocked in 101 runs while playing for the surprise (in the opinion of many but not of LeRoy) San Diego Padres.  Now that he's playing in hitter-friendly Fenway Park he should expect two things:  A steady diet of curveballs and a big increase in the power and RBI departments.  Don't worry about losing Youk's defense at first either.  Gonzalez is a Gold Glove Award winner and is at least two steps above Youkilis in that department.

2.  Kevin Youkilis:  Even though Youkilis is now playing third he should still get some time at first.  He'll spell Gonzalez when he needs a rest (also allowing Jed Lowrie to get into the lineup at third) and will probably see some time there late in games that have resulted in blowouts, much as he has done at third base the last couple of years.  Youk may not see much time there early on as gets reacquainted with third base, but he should see more time at first after the All-Star break, especially as the season draws to a close.

3.  Lars AndersonAnderson has been a top prospect in Boston's organization since 2007.  He broke into the Majors for the first time last season and failed to impress.  With Gonzalez entrenched at first Anderson may want to look into becoming an outfielder or a DH.  He has a career .279 batting average in the Minors and has never hit more than 18 homers in a season, so he doesn't make good trade bait.  His potential may be enough to warrant him as a throw-in in a mid-season trade, but don't expect to see him in Boston this season.  He's not ready for the bigs and probably will need to start the year in AAA before he should be considered ready.

First Base should be a strength this season.  Gonzalez played in 160 games last season and is not an injury risk.  In addition, he should be able to stay healthier and extremely well-rested with the benefit of the DH in the AL.  With Youkilis in reserve and Anderson available in the Minors, Boston appears well-stocked at first.  

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