Red Sox Rotation

As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees.  We will begin with the starting rotations and will start with the Boston Red Sox.

Boston plays in a small ballpark and in a league and division with a lot of hitting and not a whole lot of pitching.  In order to win consistently the Red Sox have employed a Moneyball formula under Theo Epstein which stresses a lot of offense, good metrics players on defense, and pitching that is both good and effective.  Their rotation should reflect that philosophy in 2011:

In the mix:

1.  RHP Josh Beckett:  Beckett is an example of a pitcher who is effective as opposed to good.  He serves as the team's ace despite the fact that he's never been the best pitcher in Fenway since his time with Boston, but he carries the burden of the ace and deflects attention away from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz.  Last season he went 6-6 with a 5.21 ERA, which under any baseball philosophy is a disappointment.  He had an injury last season which limited him to 21 starts, but his health is not an issue.  His rotation spot is a virtual lock on account of his status and contract.

2.  LHP Jon Lester:  Lester was a Cy Young candidate last season with his 19 wins, 208 innings pitched, and 225 strikeouts.  Behind the figurehead Beckett, Lester is the team's second ace and Boston's only true ace.  His rotation spot is a lock.

3.  RHP John Lackey:  Lackey pitched 215 innings last season and won 14 games despite pitching below expectations in the eyes of some in his first year in Boston.  Realistically, he pitched true to form.  After going from pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium to hitter-friendly Fenway Park a raise in ERA should have been expected.  He's got a big contract - too big actually - for a third starter but he still does everything a third starter has to do.  He's a lock.

4.  RHP Clay Buchholz:  In a lot of ways Buchholz is Boston's best pitcher.  On any given turn through the rotation, I'd expect Buchholz to give up the fewest runs of all five starting pitchers.  He was a strong Cy Young candidate last year with his 17 wins, but he only pitched 173.2 innings spread out over 28 starts.  He's still young (he turns 27 next August) and the Red Sox are being careful with him, but he needs to pitch more innings.  Still, his rotation spot is a lock and he's the best fourth starter in baseball.

5.  RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka:  Dice-K has been a disappointment like almost every other Japanese import signed to an enormous contract, save Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, and Kazuhiro Sasaki.  He didn't get to double-digit wins last year, but he did his job by having a winning record and turning in what has become a typical Dice-K season.  The Red Sox expect him to do the same next season and Red Sox Nation better hope he does, because with his contract he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

6.  LHP Felix Doubront:  Doubront is a young lefthander (he'll be 23 next season) who is starting to come onto the scene.  The Red Sox aren't sure if he fits better as a starter or reliever but he'll definitely get a long look as a starter this Spring.  He made three starts last season and wasn't inept enough to remove himself from the conversation.  He's really only here for depth, but keep an eye on him.

7.  RHP Matt Fox:  Fox is a righthander who is expected to come into his own soon.  The Red Sox picked him up off waivers last September from Minnesota.  In his Major and Minor League career he's both started and relieved, but he's looked a lot better as a starter, especially at the Major League level.  He's here for depth, and he's old enough where he could handle irregular work better than some of Boston's younger options.

8.  RHP Stolmy Pimentel:  Pimentel is a righthander who the Red Sox are starting to look at as a promising young pitcher.  He'll only be 21 next season and he's never pitched above Class-A Advanced, but he's expected to make a huge jump in 2011.  He's not really an option for depth at this point in time, but he could be in the Majors by September.

9.  RHP Junichi Tazawa:  Tazawa is a righthander with high expectations from Japan.  He missed all of last season due to injury and is trying to make a comeback from his Tommy John surgery.  At only 25 years old, he's got plenty of time to do that.  Tazawa has been pummeled in his brief time in the Majors but has dominated in the Minors.  The Red Sox are hoping for something in between, but don't expect to see Tazawa starting games for Boston anytime soon.