As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees. We will begin with the starting rotations and will continue with the New York Mets.
They might as well change Mets to Mess. The Mets mixed and matched their way through 2010 largely because of a number of well-stocked quality starters. That likely won't happen twice. Unfortunately for the Citi faithful, GM Sandy Alderson is hopeful that it will.
1. LHP Johan Santana: Santana is the ace of this club, there's really no doubt about. However, he's been hurt since the Mets got him in 2008. First it was a knee, then it was an elbow, now it is a career-threatening shoulder injury. He hasn't been ruled out on the season and it is still possible - however unlikely - that he could be back by April. More than likely, though, he'll start the year on the disabled list. And to make matters worse, he could miss the entire season or even be forced into early retirement.
2. RHP Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey emerged last season as the team's second ace. With the injury to Santana he'll likely emerge as the de facto ace this season. The Mets are hoping that he will at least. Pelfrey has yet to put together back-to-back good seasons. He's never really been terrible either, but he's still taking steps. The Mets hope he's ready to step up, but he's still a young player physically and there's reason to suggest that he still needs room to grow. A bigger issue is Pelfrey's mental state. He uses a sports psychologist and has had fits on the mound before. In the past, that has led to a snowball effect. He won't be able to become a true ace until he conquers his mental demons. In another potential problem, Henry Blanco, who served as his personal catcher last season, signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks and has been replaced by some combination of Ronny Paulino and Mike Nickeas.
3. LHP Jon Niese: Niese had a good rookie season last year. He was enslaved by run support problems on a team that didn't have much of it, but he still emerged as a quality starter. The Mets are hopeful that he can step up as the teams de facto second ace given the injury to Santana, but that's asking a lot. He'll only be 24 and he has a lot of room to go. Niese should progress as a quality third starter, but a number two ace is a bit much.
4. RHP R. A. Dickey: Dickey had a magical season last year at the age of 35. In a lot of ways, he should be considered the team's true ace with Santana injured, but knuckleballers like Dickey are too unpredictable and usually sandwich their good seasons around sub par ones. Dickey should be a good middle-of-the-order starter with mostly quality starts and a lot of eaten innings, but a repeat of last season is unlikely.
5. RHP Jenrry Mejia: Mejia spent last season between starting in AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo and pitching out of the bullpen in New York before being added to the rotation in September. He was dominating in the minors and pitched sufficiently in relief, but he got shelled during his turn in the rotation in September. He's still the leading candidate to win a vacant rotation spot, but he's still young and might be better suited for work out of the bullpen. He utilized Nickeas as a personal catcher last season during his starts, and he likely won't be able to use Nickeas again for anymore than one or two starts at the beginning of next season.
6. RHP Dillon Gee: Gee pitched decently at Buffalo last season but he turned heads by leading the AAA International League in strikeouts. After he was recalled in September he filled Johan Santana's rotation spot admirably. He's probably their best starting pitching prospect (not counting the still young Niese and Pelfrey) only he suffers from a lack of the hype afforded Mejia. With Santana likely to miss the beginning of the season however, Gee is the front runner to win the fifth starter's job.
7. RHP Tobi Stoner: Stoner pitched in one game in relief last season with the Mets. It was April 30. How do I remember that game? Two reasons: 1. It was the day after the epic 20-inning marathon against St. Louis and the Mets needed fresh bullpen arms for a day. 2. To make room for Stoner on the roster they designated 1B Mike Jacobs for assignment. When they sent Stoner back down the next day they needed to call up a first baseman to replace Jacobs, Frank Catalanotto, and Fernando Tatis at first base. Who did they recall? Ike Davis. Stoner pitched admirably in his lone relief outing of the season, but his season at AAA wasn't nearly as productive. He's still a prospect and there's no reason to close the book on him, but he's here purely for depth purposes. And the way things have gone with the Mets rotation the past two seasons, Stoner will probably be in the Majors sooner than anyone would like.
8. RHP Armando Rodriguez: Rodriguez is a big prospect with the Mets but he's never pitched above A-ball. They expect him to make big strides next season and he'll probably pitch in AA by the end of the year. It's possible that he could be recalled by the team in September. The fact that he's even in the mix is evidence of the thinness of New York's rotation.
Note: Many experts expect the Mets to sign another starter (Brandon Webb and Chris Young have had discussions with the team) to help fill the void caused by Santana's injuries and the general ineffectiveness of other starters like Oliver Perez and the non-tendered John Maine. They've already signed Boof Bonser to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training, but right now he's no more than a mid-level AAA starter. If Alderson wants to have any chance to win, he needs to sign one more bona fide starter.
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