Here's LeRoy's analysis of the 2011 Hall of Fame Ballot.
Yes Players: Players we will be voting for:
RHP Lee Smith, Chicago Cubs: When you look at Smith's career you see a Hall of Famer. Granted, the standard by which closers are judged has changed in the past few years following the ends of the careers of RHP Trevor Hoffman and RHP Mariano Rivera. But this does not effect Smith. He's still a Hall of Famer. The man played in seven All-Star Games, won four saves titles and - oh yeah here's the big one - he saved 478 games in his career. To me that means he's a Hall of Famer.
1B Jeff Bagwell, Houston Astros: Bagwell's career is pretty checkered. He won a Rookie of the Year Award and an MVP Award. Bagwell was a Home Run Derby participant, All-Star, Silver Slugger Award winner and Gold Glove Award winner. He had two 30-30 seasons in his career and three 40 homer seasons. But his best contributions were made with the Astros. He was a true franchise player with that team (spending his entire Major League career with them) and holds the club record for home runs at 449. He also had 1,529 runs batted in in his career.
LF Tim Raines, Montreal Expos: Considering that many of the BBWAA voters have suggested that they won't vote for any big power hitters who prospered during the steroid era, they sure haven't made up for it by honoring older players like Raines. He was a seven-time All-Star in his career and won five Player-of-the-Week Awards. In addition, Raines had seven 70-steal seasons. Raines finished his career with 808 stolen bases. But since Rickey Henderson's MLB career ended in 2003, some voters have suggested that they'll only vote for base-stealers who have stolen no less than 1,000 bases. There's only one problem with that logic, though. Only one player has reached the 1,000-base plateau in his career: Rickey Henderson. I think that 600 stolen bases is a more logical standard to vote by. Note: Raines may be suffering from a lack of support due to his well-known cocaine abuse.
RF Larry Walker, Colorado Rockies: On paper Walker is an easy choice for the Hall of Fame. He had a career .313 batting average with 2,160 hits, 383 home runs, 1,311 runs batted in and 230 stolen bases. Walker also was a five-time All-Star and won seven Gold Glove Awards. The problem: Walker played the bulk of his games at Coors Field, and a lot of voters probably think that his accomplishments are inflated.
1B Mark McGwire, Oakland Athletics: McGwire is another easy choice based on his numbers. He finished his career with 583 home runs and 1,414 runs batted in. McGwire also won ten Player-of-the-Week Awards, six Player-of-the-Month Awards, participated in six Home Run Derbies, was a 12-time All-Star, had six 40-homer seasons, won a Rookie of the Year Award and holds the Athletics club record for home runs. The problem: McGwire used performance-enhancing drugs throughout his career. No doubt he should be penalized for his use as it inflated his career. But I think he would have been a Hall of Famer without the drugs too.
1B Fred McGriff, Atlanta Braves: No player drew the ire of the BBWAA more than McGriff while he played. I can't give you a solid answer as to why. I guess that McGriff wasn't considered to be a great player by his peers and he wasn't too popular with the media. But he was a great player who looked like he was going to be a lock for the Hall of Fame at one point in time. So much so that several voters claimed that they wouldn't have voted for McGriff for the Hall even after he hit 500 home runs. The Crime Dog never got that far, but he still had a fine career with 493 home runs and 1,550 runs batted in. He also won six Player-of-the-Week Awards and was a five-time All-Star.
OF Dale Murphy, Atlanta Braves: Murphy seemed like a Hall of Famer while he played, but the numbers didn't end that way for him and he's paid the price for it. He won six Player-of-the-Month Awards, was a seven-time All-Star, won five Gold Glove Awards, won two MVP Awards, was a true franchise player for the Braves and had his number retired by them. But Murphy finished his career with 398 home runs and 1,266 runs batted in, well short of what many expected he would accomplish. He's still a Hall of Famer though.
1B Rafael Palmeiro, Texas Rangers: Palmeiro's numbers speak for themselves. He finished his career with 3,020 hits and 569 home runs and 1,835 runs batted in. Palmeiro also won five Player-of-the-Week Awards. The problem: Like McGwire, Palmeiro used performance-enhancing drugs throughout his career and was actually suspended for ten games in 2005 for violating MLB's steroids policy. His home run and RBI numbers would be cheapened by his use, but I don't think the hits would have been. He should have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer despite the abuse and he should be elected this year.
RF Juan Gonzalez, Texas Rangers: Gonzalez was one of the best players of his generation. He won five Player-of-the-Week Awards, had five 40-homer seasons, won six Silver Slugger Awards and two MVP awards. Gonzalez finished his career with 434 home runs and 1,404 runs batted in. His career ended prematurely due to injuries and he wasn't a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he should be elected now.
3B Vinny Castilla, Colorado Rockies: Numbers are not a problem for Castilla, who is the only new player on the ballot worthy of induction. In his career, he hit 320 home runs with 1,105 runs batted in. Those numbers don't jump out at you and Castilla's not a first-ballot Hall of Famer so he shouldn't be elected this year, but he should get a lot of support this season and be elected down the road. The problem: Like Walker, he played the bulk of his games at Coors Field.
Maybe Players: Players we want to vote for but can't Bring Ourselves to Do
DH Edgar Martinez, Seattle Mariners: Martinez won seven Player-of-the-Week Awards, five Player-of-the-Month Awards, was a seven-time All-Star, had two 50-double seasons, won two batting titles, won five Silver Slugger Awards and was a true franchise player with the Mariners. In addition, he finished his career with a .312 batting average and 2,247 hits with 309 home runs and 1,261 runs batted in. Martinez is definitely a Hall of Famer, but LeRoy limits ourselves to voting for only ten players and Martinez doesn't quite make our cut. We certainly wouldn't look down on anyone voting for him though.
OF Ruben Sierra, Texas Rangers: Sierra finished his career with 306 home runs and 1,322 runs batted in. He also hit homers from both sides of the plate six times and is one of the greatest hitting switch hitters of all time. Like Martinez, Sierra doesn't crack our top ten yet, and, like Castilla, he's not a first-ballot Hall of Famer, but he should get enough support to stay on the ballot.
No Players: Players we won't be Voting For:
SS Barry Larkin, Cincinnati Reds: It makes me a little sick to my stomach to learn that any ballot could be produced which included Larkin as the front-runner for induction. He did a little bit of a lot in his career, winning four Player-of-the-Week Awards, a Player-of-the-Month Award, and nine Silver Slugger Awards. On the positive side, Larkin was a 12-time All-Star and was a true franchise player for the Reds. Taking those two things into consideration, we can see why a lot of voters would cast support for Larkin. But LeRoy thinks that Larkins' career was more defined by the things he didn't do as opposed to the things he did do. For example, he didn't retire with a career .300 batting average, he didn' get to 3,000 hits, he didn't even get to 200 home runs, he didn't get to 1,000 runs batted in, and he didn't get to 500, 600, or 1,000 stolen bases (meaning that whatever assanine plateau the BBWAA provides this season for stolen bases is, Larkin didn't reach it in his career).
RHP Jack Morris, Detroit Tigers: Morris figures to probably get the second-highest amount of votes this season, and he might even get elected. That's a shame. Morris was a winner throughout his career, winning three World Series rings (and a World Series MVP Award) in his career and having three 20-win seasons. In addition, he was a five-time All-Star and was chosen as the starting pitcher for the AL in the All-Star Game three times. Morris also threw a no-hitter. But this is the bio of a player who was good during his prime but only mediocre throughout his career, came up big in the postseason, and got a lot of run support throughout his career. In the end, he finished with 254 wins and 2,478 strikeouts, neither of which will buy him a bus ticket to Cooperstown. A lot of voters won't vote for this guy because they think that his career ERA of 3.90 is too high. I've never been a guy who pays that much attention to someone's career ERA but I will say this much: People with ERAs that high don't win very many Cy Young Awards.
SS Alan Trammell, Detroit Tigers: Trammell was a true franchise player with the Tigers and he finished his career with 1,003 runs batted in. His praise ends there. This guy isn't anywhere near election, but he gets a lot of support that should be going toward more-deserving players.
1B Don Mattingly, New York Yankees: Ditto Trammell's career. Mattingly retired with a career .307 batting average and 2,153 hits along with 1,099 runs batted in. He also won an MVP Award. I get the feeling that a lot of people voting for Mattingly aren't voting for Lee Smith.
RF Jeromy Burnitz, Milwaukee Brewers: Burnitz finished his career with an impressive 315 home runs, and he should get a lot of votes that way. But LeRoy can't bring itself to vote for a guy who failed to reach 1,000 runs batted in with that many homers.
RF Brian Jordan, St. Louis Cardinals: Jordan is most well-known as the other guy in the Falcons secondary who also played Minor League Baseball in the late '80's. He also ended playing two stints with the Atlanta Braves. The good news for Jordan is that he was the anti-Deion, with his baseball career greatly outweighing his football career. The bad news is that Deion was actually a decent baseball player and Jordan only lasted three years in the NFL, meaning that Jordan's baseball career, although long and worth a nod, is nowhere near where it needs to be to get him into Cooperstown.
C Javy Lopez, Atlanta Braves: On a weaker ballot I might actually vote for Lopez. I even thought about upgrading him to a maybe player. But I decided not to. It was basically a flip of a coin. Anytime a catcher lasts as a starter for ten-plus seasons, he's had a stellar career. And Lopez hit over 200 home runs in his career. But not on this ballot.
3B Bill Mueller, San Francisco Giants: Mueller won a batting title with the Red Sox and was on their team when they broke the curse in 2004. That's about it.
LHP Terry Mulholland, Philadelphia Phillies: This son of a bitch threw a no-hitter and was the starting pitcher for the NL in the All-Star Game one year.
3B Phil Nevin, San Diego Padres: Nevin was an animal.
RHP Brad Radke, Minnesota Twins: Radke won 20 games one year and was an All-Star.
RF Tim Salmon, California Angels: Salmon was an animal.
CF Bernie Williams, New York Yankees: I have a foreboding feeling that says that Williams - like Larkin, Morris, Mattingly, and Trammell - is going to get a lot of support he doesn't deserve. There should be a law. He was a true franchise player with the Yankees.
SS Tony Womack, Pittsburgh Pirates: Womack was Jose Reyes without talent.
2B Eric Young, Colorado Rockies: Young was fast, but then he got slow.
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