As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees. We will begin with the starting rotations and will continue with the New York Mets.
They might as well change Mets to Mess. The Mets mixed and matched their way through 2010 largely because of a number of well-stocked quality starters. That likely won't happen twice. Unfortunately for the Citi faithful, GM Sandy Alderson is hopeful that it will.
1. LHP Johan Santana: Santana is the ace of this club, there's really no doubt about. However, he's been hurt since the Mets got him in 2008. First it was a knee, then it was an elbow, now it is a career-threatening shoulder injury. He hasn't been ruled out on the season and it is still possible - however unlikely - that he could be back by April. More than likely, though, he'll start the year on the disabled list. And to make matters worse, he could miss the entire season or even be forced into early retirement.
2. RHP Mike Pelfrey: Pelfrey emerged last season as the team's second ace. With the injury to Santana he'll likely emerge as the de facto ace this season. The Mets are hoping that he will at least. Pelfrey has yet to put together back-to-back good seasons. He's never really been terrible either, but he's still taking steps. The Mets hope he's ready to step up, but he's still a young player physically and there's reason to suggest that he still needs room to grow. A bigger issue is Pelfrey's mental state. He uses a sports psychologist and has had fits on the mound before. In the past, that has led to a snowball effect. He won't be able to become a true ace until he conquers his mental demons. In another potential problem, Henry Blanco, who served as his personal catcher last season, signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks and has been replaced by some combination of Ronny Paulino and Mike Nickeas.
3. LHP Jon Niese: Niese had a good rookie season last year. He was enslaved by run support problems on a team that didn't have much of it, but he still emerged as a quality starter. The Mets are hopeful that he can step up as the teams de facto second ace given the injury to Santana, but that's asking a lot. He'll only be 24 and he has a lot of room to go. Niese should progress as a quality third starter, but a number two ace is a bit much.
4. RHP R. A. Dickey: Dickey had a magical season last year at the age of 35. In a lot of ways, he should be considered the team's true ace with Santana injured, but knuckleballers like Dickey are too unpredictable and usually sandwich their good seasons around sub par ones. Dickey should be a good middle-of-the-order starter with mostly quality starts and a lot of eaten innings, but a repeat of last season is unlikely.
5. RHP Jenrry Mejia: Mejia spent last season between starting in AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo and pitching out of the bullpen in New York before being added to the rotation in September. He was dominating in the minors and pitched sufficiently in relief, but he got shelled during his turn in the rotation in September. He's still the leading candidate to win a vacant rotation spot, but he's still young and might be better suited for work out of the bullpen. He utilized Nickeas as a personal catcher last season during his starts, and he likely won't be able to use Nickeas again for anymore than one or two starts at the beginning of next season.
6. RHP Dillon Gee: Gee pitched decently at Buffalo last season but he turned heads by leading the AAA International League in strikeouts. After he was recalled in September he filled Johan Santana's rotation spot admirably. He's probably their best starting pitching prospect (not counting the still young Niese and Pelfrey) only he suffers from a lack of the hype afforded Mejia. With Santana likely to miss the beginning of the season however, Gee is the front runner to win the fifth starter's job.
7. RHP Tobi Stoner: Stoner pitched in one game in relief last season with the Mets. It was April 30. How do I remember that game? Two reasons: 1. It was the day after the epic 20-inning marathon against St. Louis and the Mets needed fresh bullpen arms for a day. 2. To make room for Stoner on the roster they designated 1B Mike Jacobs for assignment. When they sent Stoner back down the next day they needed to call up a first baseman to replace Jacobs, Frank Catalanotto, and Fernando Tatis at first base. Who did they recall? Ike Davis. Stoner pitched admirably in his lone relief outing of the season, but his season at AAA wasn't nearly as productive. He's still a prospect and there's no reason to close the book on him, but he's here purely for depth purposes. And the way things have gone with the Mets rotation the past two seasons, Stoner will probably be in the Majors sooner than anyone would like.
8. RHP Armando Rodriguez: Rodriguez is a big prospect with the Mets but he's never pitched above A-ball. They expect him to make big strides next season and he'll probably pitch in AA by the end of the year. It's possible that he could be recalled by the team in September. The fact that he's even in the mix is evidence of the thinness of New York's rotation.
Note: Many experts expect the Mets to sign another starter (Brandon Webb and Chris Young have had discussions with the team) to help fill the void caused by Santana's injuries and the general ineffectiveness of other starters like Oliver Perez and the non-tendered John Maine. They've already signed Boof Bonser to a minor league contract and invited him to Spring Training, but right now he's no more than a mid-level AAA starter. If Alderson wants to have any chance to win, he needs to sign one more bona fide starter.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
Wednesday, December 29, 2010
Steroids Still hot Topic
Rafael Palmeiro is on the Hall of Fame ballot. He was voted onto the ballot recently along with a host of other former players hoping for induction into the Hall. He joins numerous other players who are holdovers from previous ballots. The holdovers receive between five and 74 percent of the vote.
Palmeiro is hoping to be elected on the first ballot. Upon first glance his chances seem good, given his 569 home runs and 3,020 hits. But throw in the steroids that he's no-doubt-about-it taken, and his chances dim quite a bit. Palmeiro failed a drug test in 2005 shortly after recording hit number 3,000. In the previous offseason he infamously waved his finger at members of Congress and denied his involvement with steroid use as described in Jose Canseco's book Juiced.
Palmeiro's chances probably aren't good. Former steroid users have been summarily rejected from the Hall. Mark McGwire has been denied entrance into the Hall since 2006, never gaining anymore than 25 percent of the vote. Still, McGwire has gotten enough support to consistently stay on the Ballot. That's better than other admitted and confirmed steroid users like Canseco and Ken Caminiti who were each voted off the ballot on their first tries in 2006. Caminiti died of heart failure brought on by a variety of causes in 2004. Among those causes was improper use of anabolic steroids.
McGwire was caught with a questionable substance in his locker in 1998 and again in 2000. Both substances were available over-the-counter and not on the banned substance list at the time. In the years since, however, both have been banned by the FDA and added to Major League Baseball's list of banned substances.
He came dangerously close to exercising his fifth amendment rights in the now infamous congressional hearing brought about by Canseco's book. McGwire's phrase "I'm not here to talk about the past" became fodder for baseball purists and helped to launch MLB's vendetta against performance-enhancing drugs.
Last year McGwire finally admitted his steroid use in an interview on ESPN but attempted to say that he would have broken Roger Maris' single-season home run run record in 1998 and belted over 500 in his career (he eventually hit 583) without the drugs. Most have found this statement to be ludicrous. LeRoy has devised a confidential formula to calculate career totals of confirmed PED users. Our formula has McGwire at about 452 career home runs, well shy of 500 and about 131 less than he actually hit. 1998 totals yielded a 60-home run season, lending some credence to McGwire's claim.
Most other experts agreed with figures similar to these and assessed that McGwire was thereby not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Some expected him to be voted in on the second ballot, or at least receive a substantial increase in votes on future ballots. Instead, McGwire has received an almost identical amount of votes in the ensuing years.
Now that he has admitted his transgression some expect McGwire to once again receive a large increase in votes. However, others suspect that the 25 percent of voters who did vote for him were just giving him the benefit of the doubt and that he will fail to receive the necessary five percent of the votes to remain on the ballot.
Palmeiro is not in McGwire's boat. He still claims that his positive test was the result of a tainted B12 vitamin supplement. This statement is particularly damning for Palmeiro, as it is now all but confirmed to be a lie. Miguel Tejada was convicted of federal perjury (a misdemeanor at the federal level) after he denied any knowledge of steroid use by Palmeiro. As it turns out, Tejada knew plenty. So either the Congress strong-armed Tejada into telling them what they wanted to hear, or Palmeiro is as guilty as sin. Who should be the judge? Unfortunately, the BBWAA will likely have the final say here.
Something to chew over: LeRoy's formula yields only about 385 home runs for Palmeiro without steroids, about 184 less than he actually hit. However, the same formula yields about 3,395 hits, around 375 more hits than Palmeiro recorded. The sad thing being that he probably would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer without the drugs.
LeRoy's verdict: McGwire and Palmeiro probably won't get elected to the Hall of Fame. Will voters forgive McGwire's transgression now that he has admitted his guilt? Unlikely. Palmeiro figures to be waving his finger at the BBWAA for years to come.
Note: Of the six players who testified before Congress about their involvement with steroids in the now-infamous 2005 Canseco hearings, none have been elected into the Hall of Fame. Jason Giambi is still playing, Jeremy Giambi failed to play the necessary ten seasons in the Major Leagues to qualify for induction into the Hall of Fame, Canseco was voted off of the ballot on his first try, McGwire has continuously failed to gain support in his Hall campaign, Palmeiro will be on the ballot for the first time, and Sammy Sosa will become eligible for induction in 2012 (aka the end of time).
Palmeiro is hoping to be elected on the first ballot. Upon first glance his chances seem good, given his 569 home runs and 3,020 hits. But throw in the steroids that he's no-doubt-about-it taken, and his chances dim quite a bit. Palmeiro failed a drug test in 2005 shortly after recording hit number 3,000. In the previous offseason he infamously waved his finger at members of Congress and denied his involvement with steroid use as described in Jose Canseco's book Juiced.
Palmeiro's chances probably aren't good. Former steroid users have been summarily rejected from the Hall. Mark McGwire has been denied entrance into the Hall since 2006, never gaining anymore than 25 percent of the vote. Still, McGwire has gotten enough support to consistently stay on the Ballot. That's better than other admitted and confirmed steroid users like Canseco and Ken Caminiti who were each voted off the ballot on their first tries in 2006. Caminiti died of heart failure brought on by a variety of causes in 2004. Among those causes was improper use of anabolic steroids.
McGwire was caught with a questionable substance in his locker in 1998 and again in 2000. Both substances were available over-the-counter and not on the banned substance list at the time. In the years since, however, both have been banned by the FDA and added to Major League Baseball's list of banned substances.
He came dangerously close to exercising his fifth amendment rights in the now infamous congressional hearing brought about by Canseco's book. McGwire's phrase "I'm not here to talk about the past" became fodder for baseball purists and helped to launch MLB's vendetta against performance-enhancing drugs.
Last year McGwire finally admitted his steroid use in an interview on ESPN but attempted to say that he would have broken Roger Maris' single-season home run run record in 1998 and belted over 500 in his career (he eventually hit 583) without the drugs. Most have found this statement to be ludicrous. LeRoy has devised a confidential formula to calculate career totals of confirmed PED users. Our formula has McGwire at about 452 career home runs, well shy of 500 and about 131 less than he actually hit. 1998 totals yielded a 60-home run season, lending some credence to McGwire's claim.
Most other experts agreed with figures similar to these and assessed that McGwire was thereby not a first-ballot Hall of Famer. Some expected him to be voted in on the second ballot, or at least receive a substantial increase in votes on future ballots. Instead, McGwire has received an almost identical amount of votes in the ensuing years.
Now that he has admitted his transgression some expect McGwire to once again receive a large increase in votes. However, others suspect that the 25 percent of voters who did vote for him were just giving him the benefit of the doubt and that he will fail to receive the necessary five percent of the votes to remain on the ballot.
Palmeiro is not in McGwire's boat. He still claims that his positive test was the result of a tainted B12 vitamin supplement. This statement is particularly damning for Palmeiro, as it is now all but confirmed to be a lie. Miguel Tejada was convicted of federal perjury (a misdemeanor at the federal level) after he denied any knowledge of steroid use by Palmeiro. As it turns out, Tejada knew plenty. So either the Congress strong-armed Tejada into telling them what they wanted to hear, or Palmeiro is as guilty as sin. Who should be the judge? Unfortunately, the BBWAA will likely have the final say here.
Something to chew over: LeRoy's formula yields only about 385 home runs for Palmeiro without steroids, about 184 less than he actually hit. However, the same formula yields about 3,395 hits, around 375 more hits than Palmeiro recorded. The sad thing being that he probably would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer without the drugs.
LeRoy's verdict: McGwire and Palmeiro probably won't get elected to the Hall of Fame. Will voters forgive McGwire's transgression now that he has admitted his guilt? Unlikely. Palmeiro figures to be waving his finger at the BBWAA for years to come.
Note: Of the six players who testified before Congress about their involvement with steroids in the now-infamous 2005 Canseco hearings, none have been elected into the Hall of Fame. Jason Giambi is still playing, Jeremy Giambi failed to play the necessary ten seasons in the Major Leagues to qualify for induction into the Hall of Fame, Canseco was voted off of the ballot on his first try, McGwire has continuously failed to gain support in his Hall campaign, Palmeiro will be on the ballot for the first time, and Sammy Sosa will become eligible for induction in 2012 (aka the end of time).
Red Sox Rotation
As Spring Training approaches (pitchers and catchers report in six weeks) LeRoy will begin its preseason analysis of the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and the hated New York Yankees. We will begin with the starting rotations and will start with the Boston Red Sox.
Boston plays in a small ballpark and in a league and division with a lot of hitting and not a whole lot of pitching. In order to win consistently the Red Sox have employed a Moneyball formula under Theo Epstein which stresses a lot of offense, good metrics players on defense, and pitching that is both good and effective. Their rotation should reflect that philosophy in 2011:
In the mix:
1. RHP Josh Beckett: Beckett is an example of a pitcher who is effective as opposed to good. He serves as the team's ace despite the fact that he's never been the best pitcher in Fenway since his time with Boston, but he carries the burden of the ace and deflects attention away from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Last season he went 6-6 with a 5.21 ERA, which under any baseball philosophy is a disappointment. He had an injury last season which limited him to 21 starts, but his health is not an issue. His rotation spot is a virtual lock on account of his status and contract.
2. LHP Jon Lester: Lester was a Cy Young candidate last season with his 19 wins, 208 innings pitched, and 225 strikeouts. Behind the figurehead Beckett, Lester is the team's second ace and Boston's only true ace. His rotation spot is a lock.
3. RHP John Lackey: Lackey pitched 215 innings last season and won 14 games despite pitching below expectations in the eyes of some in his first year in Boston. Realistically, he pitched true to form. After going from pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium to hitter-friendly Fenway Park a raise in ERA should have been expected. He's got a big contract - too big actually - for a third starter but he still does everything a third starter has to do. He's a lock.
4. RHP Clay Buchholz: In a lot of ways Buchholz is Boston's best pitcher. On any given turn through the rotation, I'd expect Buchholz to give up the fewest runs of all five starting pitchers. He was a strong Cy Young candidate last year with his 17 wins, but he only pitched 173.2 innings spread out over 28 starts. He's still young (he turns 27 next August) and the Red Sox are being careful with him, but he needs to pitch more innings. Still, his rotation spot is a lock and he's the best fourth starter in baseball.
5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K has been a disappointment like almost every other Japanese import signed to an enormous contract, save Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, and Kazuhiro Sasaki. He didn't get to double-digit wins last year, but he did his job by having a winning record and turning in what has become a typical Dice-K season. The Red Sox expect him to do the same next season and Red Sox Nation better hope he does, because with his contract he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
6. LHP Felix Doubront: Doubront is a young lefthander (he'll be 23 next season) who is starting to come onto the scene. The Red Sox aren't sure if he fits better as a starter or reliever but he'll definitely get a long look as a starter this Spring. He made three starts last season and wasn't inept enough to remove himself from the conversation. He's really only here for depth, but keep an eye on him.
7. RHP Matt Fox: Fox is a righthander who is expected to come into his own soon. The Red Sox picked him up off waivers last September from Minnesota. In his Major and Minor League career he's both started and relieved, but he's looked a lot better as a starter, especially at the Major League level. He's here for depth, and he's old enough where he could handle irregular work better than some of Boston's younger options.
8. RHP Stolmy Pimentel: Pimentel is a righthander who the Red Sox are starting to look at as a promising young pitcher. He'll only be 21 next season and he's never pitched above Class-A Advanced, but he's expected to make a huge jump in 2011. He's not really an option for depth at this point in time, but he could be in the Majors by September.
9. RHP Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa is a righthander with high expectations from Japan. He missed all of last season due to injury and is trying to make a comeback from his Tommy John surgery. At only 25 years old, he's got plenty of time to do that. Tazawa has been pummeled in his brief time in the Majors but has dominated in the Minors. The Red Sox are hoping for something in between, but don't expect to see Tazawa starting games for Boston anytime soon.
Boston plays in a small ballpark and in a league and division with a lot of hitting and not a whole lot of pitching. In order to win consistently the Red Sox have employed a Moneyball formula under Theo Epstein which stresses a lot of offense, good metrics players on defense, and pitching that is both good and effective. Their rotation should reflect that philosophy in 2011:
In the mix:
1. RHP Josh Beckett: Beckett is an example of a pitcher who is effective as opposed to good. He serves as the team's ace despite the fact that he's never been the best pitcher in Fenway since his time with Boston, but he carries the burden of the ace and deflects attention away from Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz. Last season he went 6-6 with a 5.21 ERA, which under any baseball philosophy is a disappointment. He had an injury last season which limited him to 21 starts, but his health is not an issue. His rotation spot is a virtual lock on account of his status and contract.
2. LHP Jon Lester: Lester was a Cy Young candidate last season with his 19 wins, 208 innings pitched, and 225 strikeouts. Behind the figurehead Beckett, Lester is the team's second ace and Boston's only true ace. His rotation spot is a lock.
3. RHP John Lackey: Lackey pitched 215 innings last season and won 14 games despite pitching below expectations in the eyes of some in his first year in Boston. Realistically, he pitched true to form. After going from pitcher-friendly Angel Stadium to hitter-friendly Fenway Park a raise in ERA should have been expected. He's got a big contract - too big actually - for a third starter but he still does everything a third starter has to do. He's a lock.
4. RHP Clay Buchholz: In a lot of ways Buchholz is Boston's best pitcher. On any given turn through the rotation, I'd expect Buchholz to give up the fewest runs of all five starting pitchers. He was a strong Cy Young candidate last year with his 17 wins, but he only pitched 173.2 innings spread out over 28 starts. He's still young (he turns 27 next August) and the Red Sox are being careful with him, but he needs to pitch more innings. Still, his rotation spot is a lock and he's the best fourth starter in baseball.
5. RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka: Dice-K has been a disappointment like almost every other Japanese import signed to an enormous contract, save Ichiro, Hideki Matsui, and Kazuhiro Sasaki. He didn't get to double-digit wins last year, but he did his job by having a winning record and turning in what has become a typical Dice-K season. The Red Sox expect him to do the same next season and Red Sox Nation better hope he does, because with his contract he isn't going anywhere anytime soon.
6. LHP Felix Doubront: Doubront is a young lefthander (he'll be 23 next season) who is starting to come onto the scene. The Red Sox aren't sure if he fits better as a starter or reliever but he'll definitely get a long look as a starter this Spring. He made three starts last season and wasn't inept enough to remove himself from the conversation. He's really only here for depth, but keep an eye on him.
7. RHP Matt Fox: Fox is a righthander who is expected to come into his own soon. The Red Sox picked him up off waivers last September from Minnesota. In his Major and Minor League career he's both started and relieved, but he's looked a lot better as a starter, especially at the Major League level. He's here for depth, and he's old enough where he could handle irregular work better than some of Boston's younger options.
8. RHP Stolmy Pimentel: Pimentel is a righthander who the Red Sox are starting to look at as a promising young pitcher. He'll only be 21 next season and he's never pitched above Class-A Advanced, but he's expected to make a huge jump in 2011. He's not really an option for depth at this point in time, but he could be in the Majors by September.
9. RHP Junichi Tazawa: Tazawa is a righthander with high expectations from Japan. He missed all of last season due to injury and is trying to make a comeback from his Tommy John surgery. At only 25 years old, he's got plenty of time to do that. Tazawa has been pummeled in his brief time in the Majors but has dominated in the Minors. The Red Sox are hoping for something in between, but don't expect to see Tazawa starting games for Boston anytime soon.
Tuesday, December 28, 2010
Mets Acquire Hu from Dodgers
The New York Mets have acquired SS Chin-lung Hu from the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor league LHP Michael Antonini. Hu has been placed on the 40-man roster. He is a career .191 hitter with two home runs and 17 runs batted in in 96 career games in the Major Leagues spread out over four seasons. Hu will be 27 next season.
Antonini went 8-12 with a 4.49 ERA and 131 strikeouts last season between AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo. He has never played in the Major Leagues. An 18th-round draft pick out of Georgia College & State University in 2007, Antonini was sufficient enough to survive and advance in the Mets' system but never distinguished himself and was not considered a prospect.
Hu was a top prospect in the Dodgers' organization and is considered a rising star by Major League Baseball. He participated in the 2006 and 2007 Futures' Game where he played for the World Team and was named the MVP of the 2007 Games. He also participated in the 2006 World Baseball Classic where he represented his native Chinese Taipei. Hu is expected to compete with a host of players to battle for the starting second baseman job and/or a spot on the team as a utility player.
Antonini went 8-12 with a 4.49 ERA and 131 strikeouts last season between AA Binghamton and AAA Buffalo. He has never played in the Major Leagues. An 18th-round draft pick out of Georgia College & State University in 2007, Antonini was sufficient enough to survive and advance in the Mets' system but never distinguished himself and was not considered a prospect.
Hu was a top prospect in the Dodgers' organization and is considered a rising star by Major League Baseball. He participated in the 2006 and 2007 Futures' Game where he played for the World Team and was named the MVP of the 2007 Games. He also participated in the 2006 World Baseball Classic where he represented his native Chinese Taipei. Hu is expected to compete with a host of players to battle for the starting second baseman job and/or a spot on the team as a utility player.
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